Originally Posted by OrangeCrush
I also could see the market regressing as the years go by, especially if/when the general population really starts to tire of the onslaught of super hero content on TV and the big screen. Of course, there is a very BIG difference between natural regression of a market due to shrinking demand and a bubble market. A bubble suggests that there will be a burst and ultimately a significant crash of that market and I for one just don't see that happening with the high end market. None of the signs that we have seen with past collector markets that were bubble markets can be seen with high end statues right now. The lower end of the statue market is a different matter entirely as those are being produced in significantly larger numbers so things could unfold, especially if the companies continue ramping up production, that could ultimately wind up causing a bubble type scenario. Kotobukiya Bishoujo's are a perfect example.
And when you say that you don't see the companies having trouble selling a few thousand statues when 50 million people are going to see Avengers....well, that is basically the same thing I was saying by saying that on any given day the number of new potential customers out there is absolutely mind boggling. High end statue companies only need like one out of every 5-10,000 of the people who are going to see super hero films to buy a statue to be successful. Again, all I see at this point is more legitmate potential growth and none of the signs that the high end market is a bubble.
I mentioned a statistic once that was basically shot down as being meaningless, that over 4 million people every year in the US turn 18. I still consider that a very vital statistic as it gives you a general idea on just how large the US population is and just how many new people there are on any given year that could wind up getting into collecting. And lets face it, a significant percentage of the generation currently coming up are HUGE super hero fans. As long as companies like Sideshow don't let production spiral out of control, I see absolutely zero chance of a bubble type situation occuring in the high end market. Regression, I think thats inevitable in the long run, but a crash....well, I just don't see it. I will be the first one to admit it if I am wrong, but again, I just don't see it. And it will be at least a few years before either side knows if thier right or wrong so only time will tell.
I wont argue that there is a lot of redundancy going on right now, especially with the really popular characters like Superman and Batman, but looking back at all of the various crashes we have seen with collectible markets over the last 30 years (Baseball cards, comics, beanie babies, hummel figurines, etc), redundacy didn't play a role in any of them.
It wasn't redundancy that caused the baseball market to crash. The main reason that market crashed was due to way too many companies producing WAY too many cards. At the peak of the baseball card market, companies were producing 81 BILLION baseball cards a year. If you look at a Becket price guide, you will see that during the early and mid 80's, you basicllly had 3 sets a year being produced. 1 by Donruss, 1 by Topps, and 1 by Fleer. Fast forward to the early 90's and you had literally 30+ sets being produced, the result of the influx of new companies and the original companies like Topps going from producing a single set a year to multiple sets a year. And Baseball card collectors were to a large extent completionist collectors. There were so many sets being produced it became impossible even keeping up with all of it, and this massive change in the sheer amount of sets and cards being produced literally happened in a very short period of time. You add that to the influx of investors and the effect they had on the market, which was to basically cause a massive shift in the overall value of baseball cards and how they were viewed, which changed from being viewed as collectibles to being viewed as legitimate investments, and the end result was a bubble market that was just aching to burst.
It wasn't redundancy that caused the comic crash of the 90's. That was caused by the large changes that occured with distribution, which ultimately led to a MASSIVE increase in production. Diamond and Capital City, which were 2 of the largest distribution companies for comics, significantly lowered the requirements to buy from them because they were looking to grow and the end result was a MASSIVE increase in the number of comic book shops that opened up all accross the US. Mile High comics did a series of essays on the comic crash of the 90's and according to Mile High, Diamond and Capital City lowered thier requirements to just an initial order of $300, lol. The number of comic shops grew from 800 in 1979 to over 10,000 by 1993. There are some other factors as well, many of which were identical with what happened with baseball cards. The influx of investors, the shift to comics being viewed as investments, which led to the bagging and boarding of comics, but again, redundnacy had nothing to do with it.
Redundacy didn't play a role in the massive drop in value of hummel figurines. That was the result of just a particular generation being interested in collecting them so when those people started passing away or ceased buying them, there were very few collectors to replace them so basically the huge drop in value of Hummel figurines was simply due to supply and demand. The demand simply dried up.
I could go on and on citing all of the crashes we have seen in collectibles markets over the last 30 years, but this is already becoming way too big of a post and I know how some people in here hate my long posts. Every crash/bubble that you look at in the collecting industy over the last 30 years, rendundancy had nothing to do with it.
And suggesting that these companies rely on pre orders for cash flow...well, short of XM at the very beginning due to just starting out, I don't believe that one bit, especially when it comes to Sideshow. There is a big difference between taking pre orders and actually NEEDING pre orders to continue funding your business. If your honestly suggesting that Sideshow needs the money from pre orders at this point to fund thier production of statues...well, I think your way out in left field on this one. The money they are bringing in from the premium print line alone, which I guarantee is seeing profit margins of at least 80-85%, would give them all they money they need to fund the statues that are in prouction at any given time. Yes, people are basically helping to fund statues by pre ordering and companies would be stupid at this point not to take it since its become the prevailing business model in the industry, but suggesting that companies actually need that cashflow to produce thier statues, I don't buy that for a second especially with Sideshow. And XM has been so successful thus far that I highly doubt they still need pre order money to continue funding thier business. Again, there is a HUGE difference between having a pre order business model and actually needing a pre order business model and I don't buy for a second that most of the high end statue companies out there need a pre order model to fund thier business. Its simply become the standard model for the industry and they do benefit from it so again companies would be stupid not to take pre orders at this point.
As for the higher prices, those are due to companies charging more money for thier products, not due to rising prices on the secondary market due to speculation, investors, and collectors who have an interest in value. The rising costs that played roles in the previous bubble crashes we have seen in collectible markets were all secondary market increases caused by the influx of investors and collector's interest in overall value. So this would be the first time in history that a bubble was caused by rising prices from the manufacturers. Not to mention, the quality of the statues themselves have increased as prices have increased.
As for more unsold pre orders, I have no idea what your talking about there. Every single statue XM has brought to market has sold out and 95% of the statues Sidshow has brought to market have sold out. I have posted the sales numbers for Sideshow from the past 2 years multiple times so I am sure you have seen them. I don't understand how anyone can look at those sales figures and claim that unsold statues/unsold pre orders are an issue. And if your referring to Sideshow current slate or pre-orders...well, one can attribute the lack of fast sell outs to a number of things. First, many collectors are waiting to see production pieces before ordering and 2nd, Sideshow has had such a stellar year that there are a large number of amazing statues competing with one another. Just look at the statues releasing in the next 3 months alone (Red Sonja, Captain Marvel, Dark Phoenix, Green Lantern, Pfieffer Catwoman, and the list goes on and on). I have never seen so many amazing statues packed into such a short period of time and you just had Lady Death and He-Man hit the market as well. I have absolutely zero doubt that Sideshow's sales will remain solid and that they will sell out with 95% of the statues that are currently up for pre order.
The best way to predict if there is a bubble is to look at the history of the collectibles market and look at the previous bubble crashes we have seen and again, none of the signs or problems that caused the previous crashes we have seen are evident in the high end statue market right now. The KEY factor in the major crashes we have seen (baseball cards, 90's comics) has been a MASSIVE rise in production and I don't think we will ever see that kind of increase of production in the high end market.
Anyways, this post is way too long and as I stated before, even if there is a market bubble in the high end statue market, which again I disagree with 100%, its not going to burst for at least a few years so going back and forth about it really is pointless at this point. A few years down the line we can pick this debate back up and see where things are then. Until then we'll just agree to disagree on this one.
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