Is The Hobby Dying?

[#Brian]

^^^GOOD POST! Nice perspective from the digital world.

Agree about the movie stuff EXCEPT, when the human IS the character, IE: Arnold=Terminator, Harrison Ford= Indy/Han solo..etc...

[Josh-a-tron]

Originally Posted by brutikong

I thought I might add a slightly different perspective. I am a digital sculptor, working in the video game industry. For a long time I had no real way of realizing my artwork outside of rendered images. With the explosion of 3D printing it has finally become possible to have physical copies of my work. For me and many of my cohorts, statues were a logical next step. I think this coincides with the rise of Prime 1, the increased quality of sculpts and the over-saturation of the market. It really is faster and easier to create sculpts, with higher detail and fidelity, digitally than it is in traditional media.
Additionally most movie models are created digitally anyway, we now use those models to make movie accurate statues.
I think for long time collectors the sudden rise in quality, would entice you to purchase them, but there needs to be an understanding that this is the new normal.
I am not entirely sure where the increased price is coming from. I would imagine there is some early profit taking, until the market flattens.
I think statue collectors need to fundamentally rethink why it is they are going to buy statues. Resale market might not be there for them.

On a side: The comment made earlier about everybody wants movie accurate statues, may not be the case for people like me. Chris Helmsworth is not MY Thor. My Thor is not a doofus in the ghostbusters movie. When I read Norse myths as kid I had a completely different idea of him. I think there is still room for a variety of ideas.

Well the one things people don't look at when they're thinking of price is the artists that do this. If you as a company want to get people to buy your statues you're going to want to hire the best artists to produce those statues. Now, the amount of people who can sculpt digitally has increased the talent pool but, it's still a very small group of people that 1. have the fundamental knowledge to make the art ie. anatomy, technical art skill and 2. The knowledge of how to use the programs in an efficient manner to meet deadlines given by these companies and at least some knowledge on how to engineer the sculpture so that it isn't going to fall over.

So the fastest, best digital sculptors are going to want more money for their services and those hours are going to be put into the cost of the statue. Then add everyone else's salaries onto; painters, fabricators, molders, casters. You're going to pay more for the people with the most knowledge.

Not to mention, like you, a great many of the digital sculptors are eaten up by the video game industry.

[Titusak]

I don't know if it would interest someone, but I would like to give my opinion on this matter as a private custom producer.

I started collecting like 4 or 5 years ago so I'm still young in the hobby and I only collect what I'm fan of. Nothing very trendy.

I started producing customs, mainly because, at the time, what I was looking for, was not on the market. (mainly video games characters)

I have no particular talents, so I had to learn about the business and how things where done, and boy ! you are not in the business to do profit margin, but because you are a passionate ! Because, trust me when i say: nothing is simple when it comes to production. Even without license !

First, you need concept art, then sculpt, then cut, then a print, some molds, some cast, some paints, some this and that....

IT'S A SLOW AND TEDIOUS PROCESS WHICH COST A LOT OF MONEY IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR QUALITY.

And if you are still looking for that as collector, you will have to pay the price.
It's not gonna go down :
Chinese manufacturers have to put the price for skilled workers, better materials, quality control process, etc... and companies that are ordering from them are not gonna cut their very low profit margin neither, so the price just go up naturally.

If people stop buying, well, they will eventually reduce the number of statues produced per year, but I don't think they will cut their prices out. it makes no senses in term of profit.

[qz33]

Forps definitely has good taste.

[OuttaSight]

Sorry been busy.

Talking about the 'Collectible Statues' business as a whole is difficult. Similar to discussing the Auto Industry as a whole.

Its easier to discuss segments as some are growing and some are shrinking.

What the 1:4 scale business as a whole is seeing right now is declining and/or stagnating sales in North America and Europe but increasing sales in Asia, especially China.

China accounted for 0% of PCS sales 5 years ago and now play a major part in our 1:4 scale business.

Its a bit of a self fulfilling cycle as factory costs rise, 1:4 scale prices increase reducing the number of people who can afford them. That means quantities decrease
and as that happens factories raise their prices again, creating a cycle of increasing prices and decreasing quantities.

At some point they either find equilibrium or the market collapses. You can see this same effect in the previous USA housing bubble as well as the collector car bubble.

The people who get priced out of the 1:4 scale market will be split into:

1) those who stop collecting
2) those who become very selective causing manufacturers to focus more and more on A list characters and neglecting anyone less than that
3) those who move to smaller and less expensive statues

I believe the 3rd group is going to be the strongest growth so PCS is going to put a lot of focus on it.

[aa909]

Originally Posted by PopCultureShock

Sorry been busy.

Talking about the 'Collectible Statues' business as a whole is difficult. Similar to discussing the Auto Industry as a whole.

Its easier to discuss segments as some are growing and some are shrinking.

What the 1:4 scale business as a whole is seeing right now is declining and/or stagnating sales in North America and Europe but increasing sales in Asia, especially China.

China accounted for 0% of PCS sales 5 years ago and now play a major part in our 1:4 scale business.

Its a bit of a self fulfilling cycle as factory costs rise, 1:4 scale prices increase reducing the number of people who can afford them. That means quantities decrease
and as that happens factories raise their prices again, creating a cycle of increasing prices and decreasing quantities.

At some point they either find equilibrium or the market collapses. You can see this same effect in the previous USA housing bubble as well as the collector car bubble.

The people who get priced out of the 1:4 scale market will be split into:

1) those who stop collecting
2) those who become very selective causing manufacturers to focus more and more on A list characters and neglecting anyone less than that
3) those who move to smaller and less expensive statues

I believe the 3rd group is going to be the strongest growth so PCS is going to put a lot of focus on it.

good analysis!

[risingstar]

Originally Posted by PopCultureShock

Sorry been busy.

Talking about the 'Collectible Statues' business as a whole is difficult. Similar to discussing the Auto Industry as a whole.

Its easier to discuss segments as some are growing and some are shrinking.

What the 1:4 scale business as a whole is seeing right now is declining and/or stagnating sales in North America and Europe but increasing sales in Asia, especially China.

China accounted for 0% of PCS sales 5 years ago and now play a major part in our 1:4 scale business.

Its a bit of a self fulfilling cycle as factory costs rise, 1:4 scale prices increase reducing the number of people who can afford them. That means quantities decrease
and as that happens factories raise their prices again, creating a cycle of increasing prices and decreasing quantities.

At some point they either find equilibrium or the market collapses. You can see this same effect in the previous USA housing bubble as well as the collector car bubble.

The people who get priced out of the 1:4 scale market will be split into:

1) those who stop collecting
2) those who become very selective causing manufacturers to focus more and more on A list characters and neglecting anyone less than that
3) those who move to smaller and less expensive statues

I believe the 3rd group is going to be the strongest growth so PCS is going to put a lot of focus on it.

I'm saddened to hear your prognosis of the industry, though I very much agree. As a 20+ year collector of statues, I admit, I'm disappointed to see where the industry is headed. For now, I see myself more represented in the #2 type collector with a caveat. As long as I can sell older pieces to subsidize payments for new pieces, as I have been able to for over a decade though it has become increasingly difficult, I can justify sticking around. However, taking that away, I have already been priced out. Unfortunately, going from 1/4 scale to 1/8 or 1/10 scale isn't something I'm at all prepare to entertain at this time. I should add, with regards to point #2, I don't need another Hulk or Spiderman as I would pass on those and other A-listers. However, I would definitely consider a Doc Ock or Zatanna, for example.

[nbr3bagshotrow]

Originally Posted by PopCultureShock

Sorry been busy.

Talking about the 'Collectible Statues' business as a whole is difficult. Similar to discussing the Auto Industry as a whole.

Its easier to discuss segments as some are growing and some are shrinking.

What the 1:4 scale business as a whole is seeing right now is declining and/or stagnating sales in North America and Europe but increasing sales in Asia, especially China.

China accounted for 0% of PCS sales 5 years ago and now play a major part in our 1:4 scale business.

Its a bit of a self fulfilling cycle as factory costs rise, 1:4 scale prices increase reducing the number of people who can afford them. That means quantities decrease
and as that happens factories raise their prices again, creating a cycle of increasing prices and decreasing quantities.

At some point they either find equilibrium or the market collapses. You can see this same effect in the previous USA housing bubble as well as the collector car bubble.

The people who get priced out of the 1:4 scale market will be split into:

1) those who stop collecting
2) those who become very selective causing manufacturers to focus more and more on A list characters and neglecting anyone less than that
3) those who move to smaller and less expensive statues

I believe the 3rd group is going to be the strongest growth so PCS is going to put a lot of focus on it.

Glad to be part of nbr3 (heh) although I'm not moving. I never left. Knowing I had limited space I was very selective in the 1/4 scales I purchased but still stuck mainly with 1/6 scale and couldn't be happier.

[ZenLogikos]

Originally Posted by PopCultureShock

The people who get priced out of the 1:4 scale market will be split into:

1) those who stop collecting
2) those who become very selective causing manufacturers to focus more and more on A list characters and neglecting anyone less than that
3) those who move to smaller and less expensive statues

I believe the 3rd group is going to be the strongest growth so PCS is going to put a lot of focus on it.

Aww, nuts (as a huge fan of PCS and Street Fighter, AND 1:4).

[SONICobra]

When it comes to a lot of licenses it feels like theres still quite a few "a listers" left to do imo. Sorry zen i think youre right about SF though