Winter is coming....and it is going to last for years to come. An in-depth analysis

[romakrelian]

k thanks

[Brandon]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

Winter is coming. A winter that is going to last for years to come...

So, what is your opinion?

Solid post with some good points.

I agree that things will probably get worse before they improve, but I don't think it'll take anywhere near 10 years. I'm eager to see what happens next year, when the bitcoin halving takes places. It's historically been the precursor to a bull run, so we'll see if the economy is in as bad a shape as some believe.

I think a major factor you forgot to mention was Greed. Yes covid mucked up the supply chains and increased the costs of certain things, but the increases in prices were rarely proportionate to that. Many, if not all, companies took advantage of this and increased prices when they had no real reason to. P1 is a clear example of this. The pandemic has been done with for a while now, but they still use it as an excuse for their ridiculous shipping prices which are clearly padded. Hard to believe they're struggling when they can afford to develop dozens of new prototypes for their showcases, many of which won't even be put up for PO.

I don't think this hobby is doomed or anything, the way I see it, we're just correcting after the absurdity of late 2020 - 2021.

The real question is whether or not the amount of new collectors entering the hobby can keep up with the number of collectors leaving. How many new collectors will be put off when they find out the cost of a basic 1/4 statue is 1k, if not more? Especially now that the superhero movie craze has ended and comics in general are declining in popularity. Even as the economy recovers, if the price of entry and the price of participating in this hobby keeps rising, it'll probably contribute more to causing a "winter" than any of the aforementioned factors.

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by Brandon

Solid post with some good points.

I agree that things will probably get worse before they improve, but I don't think it'll take anywhere near 10 years. I'm eager to see what happens next year, when the bitcoin halving takes places. It's historically been the precursor to a bull run, so we'll see if the economy is in as bad a shape as some believe.

I think a major factor you forgot to mention was Greed. Yes covid mucked up the supply chains and increased the costs of certain things, but the increases in prices were rarely proportionate to that. Many, if not all, companies took advantage of this and increased prices when they had no real reason to. P1 is a clear example of this. The pandemic has been done with for a while now, but they still use it as an excuse for their ridiculous shipping prices which are clearly padded. Hard to believe they're struggling when they can afford to develop dozens of new prototypes for their showcases, many of which won't even be put up for PO.

I don't think this hobby is doomed or anything, the way I see it, we're just correcting after the absurdity of late 2020 - 2021.

The real question is whether or not the amount of new collectors entering the hobby can keep up with the number of collectors leaving. How many new collectors will be put off when they find out the cost of a basic 1/4 statue is 1k, if not more? Especially now that the superhero movie craze has ended and comics in general are declining in popularity. Even as the economy recovers, if the price of entry and the price of participating in this hobby keeps rising, it'll probably contribute more to causing a "winter" than any of the aforementioned factors.

I probably was not clear enough. 10y will be needed to see high sales numbers again. The market/hobby is going to stabilize in 1.5-2y. Not 10y of extreme winter. Lets say 2y of extreme winter and then 8y of mild winter. A stabilization will take place in 1-2y but do not expect the old good days without a new "breed" of collectors coming into the hobby.

Nevertheless, the elephant in the room is that old collectors, the CORE of collectors buying are already "full" and they are already, more or less, space-constraint. Our hobby is a strange one where there is a "time" and a "space" limit dictated by how large your house is.

Comics or watches do not have the same problem being items easily stacked or storaged. I can argue that it is the biggest problem of this hobby in the long-term.

NOONE talks about this and how it influences even "old" collectors. This hobby is kind of unique, it is like car collecting but in that hobby guys are multi-millionaires owning huge garages or multiple mansions, they are not average Joes.

So the market is going to bottom out in lets say 2y, but for a new "golden age" we are going to need ~10y for a new breed of collectors to come in. New collectors with EMPTY spaces to fill.

I can easily see market for 1/6 dollies (1/6 figures) bottoming out sooner than the market for statues due to their smaller size and smaller boxes, storage needed, space constraints etc

[ACalica917]

Haven?t read everyone?s comments but pertaining to Point number 2, if we are still relying on production in China, has anyone brought up the incoming new BRICS currency agreed upon by the larger developing countries Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa therefore devaluing the US dollar as the the GBP.

[Tbolt]

Solid points, but I don’t understand why you think a 1/3 line is the answer when you note that space is a primary issue for collectors. 1/3 is even more problematic, shipping is higher, and it takes you out of the hobby sooner. The other difference between now and say the last downturn is the amount of product that has already been produced. In the future you won’t have to wait for that new Captain America, just buy one of the several that was already produced, many in such large numbers it’s almost impossible for them to have all found a forever home.

[Freakyguy666]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

Do you believe that i don't follow the market? Or do you believe that only YOU invest?

Clearly you are CLUELESS and afraid of the REAL FACTS so of course you want me to go away!



Here are the FACTS again:

You said the fed is not going to let the market go up because they are afraid it will lead to more inflation.

I pointed out that the market has ALREADY GONE UP

IT IS UP OVER 34% in 6-9 months!
THAT IS HISTORICALLY INCREDIBLY GREAT!

So your argument FALLS APART before you even get to Point #2!



Sorry buddy but I’m not going anywhere as long as liars like you keep making up things to support their BS

[ukshaun]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

So, what is your opinion?

I think i will put my head in the sand.

[Sonic Boom]

All I know is that my gas, grocery, and energy bills have doubled. My paycheck has not doubled. Vehicle and home prices are laughable. I wonder what caused this. Less money for statues and stuff.

[KiDD]

This makes it sound like once every 10 years new batch of collector's reach maturity and pop into the market New people come into the hobby all the time, but I'd argue that the circumstances have made them pickier than before (somewhat forcefully but also justifiably).

Also, does anyone know why he(?) refers to himself(?) in 3rd person lol

[Straken-SWE]

Originally Posted by KiDD

This makes it sound like once every 10 years new batch of collector's reach maturity and pop into the market New people come into the hobby all the time, but I'd argue that the circumstances have made them pickier than before (somewhat forcefully but also justifiably).

Also, does anyone know why he(?) refers to himself(?) in 3rd person lol