Winter is coming....and it is going to last for years to come. An in-depth analysis

[alterton]

I have been around this industry for almost 20 years as a professional sculptor, and a little longer as a fan of everything pop culture related, I have seen the rise and fall of great companies with great products. The industry has moved in cycles according to world wide economy ups and downs for sure, but there is something none has mentioned yet... the price of the collectibles and the shipping costs have been also rising for another very specific reason... SIZE! When this hobby made it breaktrhought collectibles standard size was between 1:8 and 1:6, nowadays we are talking sizes of 1:3, 1:2 and 1:1. Pieces with massive and gigantic bases that take the view far from the figure... high end collectors taste changed unger for bigger and bigger pieces, and production and logistic of such big pieces of course increase costs and final price point. The industry will go nowhere, it is already installed in our geek community, all I see is companies will shrink the size of their pieces or they will dissapear. Collectors with money give a ---- about prices, size, shipping cost, space or whatever, they will continue busying as long the product is good. Average collector will end up selling those massive pieces taking space from their rooms and will nuy smaller. But dissapear? no, this industry will go nowhere, it might change, but will never dissapear

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by Freakyguy666

Clearly you are CLUELESS and afraid of the REAL FACTS so of course you want me to go away!



Here are the FACTS again:

You said the fed is not going to let the market go up because they are afraid it will lead to more inflation.

I pointed out that the market has ALREADY GONE UP

IT IS UP OVER 34% in 6-9 months!
THAT IS HISTORICALLY INCREDIBLY GREAT!

So your argument FALLS APART before you even get to Point #2!



Sorry buddy but I?m not going anywhere as long as liars like you keep making up things to support their BS

You simply don't get it. Did i write here 6-9 months ago about stocks or Fed? Are you NUTS? I wasn't even a member 6-9 months ago!!!

At THIS point, read my lips, at THIS point, i would hedge my bets. The market has gone TOO far thinking that Fed is going to stop rising rates and then soon enough to cut them. But Fed is going to keep them elevated for longer than the market thinks.

At THIS point, read again or get your glasses, at THIS point, i would cover my bets.

I wasnt a member here 6-9 months ago nor did i write anything about stocks! For God's sake! You are clearly obnoxious as some other members wrote before!

You are clueless and obnoxious and this is the reason they already thrown you out of other threads.

I POLITELY asked you to not write in my thread again. And still you came back to bash and talk nonsense.

Please, pal, do NOT write again in this thread. Go in other threads and write your nonsense. Enough is enough.

Now back to real conversation.

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by Tbolt

Solid points, but I don?t understand why you think a 1/3 line is the answer when you note that space is a primary issue for collectors. 1/3 is even more problematic, shipping is higher, and it takes you out of the hobby sooner. The other difference between now and say the last downturn is the amount of product that has already been produced. In the future you won?t have to wait for that new Captain America, just buy one of the several that was already produced, many in such large numbers it?s almost impossible for them to have all found a forever home.

1/3 line by Sideshow in ~ 1.5-2y would be the weapon

a) to KO any competition left. To "collect" all the money like a vaccuum and KO any competitor left (cause i predict many of them would be already KOed by themselves)

b) to immortalize Harbottle, Canale, Bergholtz, Peterson, Panfilova etc, once and for all. For an eternity.

A 1/3 line by Sideshow as soon as the market stabilizes (eg 1.5-2y) is going to end all of competitors in the comic-producing stuff realm and also is going to put Prime1 (Sideshow's main competitor) in a tough situation, due to the fact that Sideshow's POs and sculpts are going to be the centre of the hobby and money would flow to Sideshow. Whatever money is left in the hobby.

It would a marvellous plan to end what Sideshow should have ended years ago.

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by alterton

I have been around this industry for almost 20 years as a professional sculptor, and a little longer as a fan of everything pop culture related, I have seen the rise and fall of great companies with great products. The industry has moved in cycles according to world wide economy ups and downs for sure, but there is something none has mentioned yet... the price of the collectibles and the shipping costs have been also rising for another very specific reason... SIZE! When this hobby made it breaktrhought collectibles standard size was between 1:8 and 1:6, nowadays we are talking sizes of 1:3, 1:2 and 1:1. Pieces with massive and gigantic bases that take the view far from the figure... high end collectors taste changed unger for bigger and bigger pieces, and production and logistic of such big pieces of course increase costs and final price point. The industry will go nowhere, it is already installed in our geek community, all I see is companies will shrink the size of their pieces or they will dissapear. Collectors with money give a ---- about prices, size, shipping cost, space or whatever, they will continue busying as long the product is good. Average collector will end up selling those massive pieces taking space from their rooms and will nuy smaller. But dissapear? no, this industry will go nowhere, it might change, but will never dissapear

I agree with some points but disagree with many others. The winter is coming and will last for wayyyyy longer than nearly ALL of you think cause (lets sum my arguments)

1) Interest rates will remain elevated (maybe stable but elevated) for a long period. Nearly zero rates are a thing of the past

2) A deflationary factor (namely China) in the world economy allowing Western countries to achieve high growth with relatively low inflation (which is an oxymoron to happen for a long time and especially for 2-3 decades) is turning into an inflationary factor after 20-30y

3) Cheap food prices are surely a thing of the past (affecting overall budget of an individual, of a family etc)

4) These things (statues) are DECORATIVE items, nothing more, nothing less. Also the hobby is full of average Joes and lacks the depth and number of trully "deep-pocketed" collectors other hobbies have (eg cars, watches)

5) This hobby is also unique cause it has a "time" and a "space" constraint due to the size of statues and their boxes. You can stack 500 comics or 300 watches easily. Try and stack 300 statues. Even Forps finds it difficult. So "old" and "loyal" collectors have a "clock" ticking against their will to collect more. Their constraint is basically their house.

Comics or watches or stamps do not have the same constraint. They are manageable.

Nearly noone discuss about this, cause 98% of guys here only have statue collecting of DC, Marvel, Star Wars pieces as their hobby.

The clock is ticking. Old collectors are burnt out and regardless of how loyal they are, they either have to sell OLD pieces to make room for new (and the aftermarket is dead, so they are going to lose tons of money) or rent 1-2-3 storage units with the prices of storage units also skyrocketing.

Or......they would reduce their POs at the minimum eg a Harbottle's sculpt, a Panfilova's, a Canale's.

The situation is dire.

The 1st is macroeconomic, the 2nd and 3rd are long-term worldwide macroeconomic trends changing once and for all, the 4th one is a reality (they are decorative items) and the 5th one is the biggest struggle of this hobby vs comics, watches, stamps etc.

Winter is coming, guys.

You are in the denial stage. The 5 stages are

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

You are still in the denial stage.

Man up and prepare yourselves for a winter we've NEVER seen before in this hobby!

[Augen]

The biggest question that humanity has encountered over and over in the modern industrial age is the speed at which it can innovate in the face of calamity.

For example, how much food could we grow? For centuries farmers used manure in the growing of crops. Finite and struggling to keep up with a booming world population. Projections were we'd see mass starvation and a capping of human population. Made sense based on what we knew. Then humanity developed fertilizer which caused a boom to how much food we could grow.

When it comes to cynical or optimistic outlook of our future much of it goes back to this. Will we find ways to innovate out of our current predicament?

[FETTFAN]

Everyone usually comments on these type of threads from the customers perspective.

However, we need to also consider the manufacturers/retailers perspective. The biggest issue at present over the past 12 months has been storage costs. As toys, statues etc sales slow the retailers have to reduce prices to free up space and reduce warehouse costs and maintain cash flow.

This creates a huge issue as customers become annoyed that a statue they purchased 6 months ago at full price can be found with a large percentage discount later.

Even though companies such as PCS are producing low edition size exclusives of around 75 these are still not selling out.

Very tough and difficult times ahead for manufacturers, retailers and customers

[The SHOGUN]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

I agree with some points but disagree with many others. The winter is coming and will last for wayyyyy longer than nearly ALL of you think cause (lets sum my arguments)

1) Interest rates will remain elevated (maybe stable but elevated) for a long period. Nearly zero rates are a thing of the past

2) A deflationary factor (namely China) in the world economy allowing Western countries to achieve high growth with relatively low inflation (which is an oxymoron to happen for a long time and especially for 2-3 decades) is turning into an inflationary factor after 20-30y

3) Cheap food prices are surely a thing of the past (affecting overall budget of an individual, of a family etc)

4) These things (statues) are DECORATIVE items, nothing more, nothing less. Also the hobby is full of average Joes and lacks the depth and number of trully "deep-pocketed" collectors other hobbies have (eg cars, watches)

5) This hobby is also unique cause it has a "time" and a "space" constraint due to the size of statues and their boxes. You can stack 500 comics or 300 watches easily. Try and stack 300 statues. Even Forps finds it difficult. So "old" and "loyal" collectors have a "clock" ticking against their will to collect more. Their constraint is basically their house.

Comics or watches or stamps do not have the same constraint. They are manageable.

Nearly noone discuss about this, cause 98% of guys here only have statue collecting of DC, Marvel, Star Wars pieces as their hobby.

The clock is ticking. Old collectors are burnt out and regardless of how loyal they are, they either have to sell OLD pieces to make room for new (and the aftermarket is dead, so they are going to lose tons of money) or rent 1-2-3 storage units with the prices of storage units also skyrocketing.

Or......they would reduce their POs at the minimum eg a Harbottle's sculpt, a Panfilova's, a Canale's.

The situation is dire.

The 1st is macroeconomic, the 2nd and 3rd are long-term worldwide macroeconomic trends changing once and for all, the 4th one is a reality (they are decorative items) and the 5th one is the biggest struggle of this hobby vs comics, watches, stamps etc.

Winter is coming, guys.

You are in the denial stage. The 5 stages are

1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression
5. Acceptance

You are still in the denial stage.

Man up and prepare yourselves for a winter we've NEVER seen before in this hobby!

oh look...Forps is back

[KiDD]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

1/3 line by Sideshow in ~ 1.5-2y would be the weapon

Lol how's that gonna fix the space issue? 1/3 is maybe fine for a single "grail" piece, but in no way sustainable long term.

IMO 1/5 and 1/6 are the way to go. Easier and cheaper storage for companies, more statues for customers. Don't need to look any further than the anime statue market to see that the demand for smaller pieces is there and it's not going anywhere.

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by KiDD

Lol how's that gonna fix the space issue? 1/3 is maybe fine for a single "grail" piece, but in no way sustainable long term.

IMO 1/5 and 1/6 are the way to go. Easier and cheaper storage for companies, more statues for customers.

No, it would be the tool to CLEAR the field from all competition. Having the 1/4 on a strong grip where basically only Sideshow is selling nowadays and then stepping in 1/3, it would help her KO all competition, once and for all. To end with the joke that started some years ago. I can see only Prime1 enduring such a "war" by Sideshow along with "niche" companies like eg ECC or PCS specializing in horror or 1/3 females etc. Companies producing comic stuff or trying to step in Sideshow's realm are going to be KOed.

It would also help the marvellous sculptors she has, to give us the best representations of comic characters in 1/3 line and immortalize these sculptors forever. If LBS can sell eg 400 pieces of that Bowen-looking stuff, Sideshow can easily sell eg >500 pieces.

Sideshow would "collect" all available money (via its 1/4 and new 1/3 line) for this hobby like a vaccuum suffocating competition by not leaving any money for other companies and their offerings.

But not now. In 1.5-2y time.

[Zombiez]

Everything will work itself out. When it comes to food prices poor people will just change what they eat. America is too fat anyway. STOP EATING. BEEF is expensive. Soda is bad for you drink water.

People will have to cook intelligently again, Remember one big pot of Jamaican rice and peas can last for a whole week.

New statues will just get smaller and long time collectors will begin to sell some of their big statues.

The aftermarket is not dead but the profits from selling won't be high. As someone who buys with no intention of selling this is great for me because now i can get some of those statues i missed without paying eBay prices

MEXICO is probably going to replace china for production and generally speaking the cheap production of various products will become regional. I don't know how automation will affect this hobby but i only see it making production cheaper.