Avengers Endgame Box Office Predictions

[Gothamite]

A friend said he went to see Shazam on the Tuesday after Endgame's opening weekend. When he got to the theater, they told him that they canceled Shazam for the rest of the day to show Endgame instead.

Digital distribution makes these kinds of scheduling changes really easy.

[Collection King 13]

Originally Posted by Tetragrammaton

Heading into its third and last big weekend, I think it's safe to say Avengers Endgame won't be reaching $1B domestic or even beating the domestic record holder of Star Wars the Force Awakens at $936.6M.

Worldwide, while it has a good chance of catching Avatar at $2.78B, I now doubt it has enough legs to reach $3B.

Domestic: $660M
International: $1.66B

Total Worldwide: $2.32B

But wasn't Star Wars released Twice?

[Tetragrammaton]

No, just once. It just made a ton of money over December 2015 and January 2016.

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...=starwars7.htm

[Luminous]

Originally Posted by Tetragrammaton

I think the run time of Endgame as being a factor in its box office result has been overstated and has played a very small part in decreasing it's box office.

Yes, theaters on average can show one less screening in a typical 12h00 to 24h00 block of time than with a typical length 2 hour long movie. While this may have been a limiting factor for opening weekend, I don't see it really affecting people's ability to see the film. Screenings are rarely at full capacity outside of the opening weekend, so one less screening per day simply means more people per screening.

Now some people may not go see a 3 hour long movie or may only go see it once. Again, I can't see this being a significant percentage of audiences. Infinity War was only 20 mins shorter than Endgame and I don't recall much attention being paid to its run time.

I wasn't referring to allotted screens being the issue. Not everyone is willing or has the time to go out to see a 3 hour movie. A 20 minute difference isn't anything to scoff at either.

Originally Posted by nearmint

Keep in mind that Avatar is 2 hours and 42 minutes. I don't think run time is an issue.

Again, that is still 20 minutes of someone's time. Not to mention that at first glance a 3 hour run time will seem significantly longer than anything listed at 2 hours and change. Yes, for us what's another 20 minutes? Nothing. The casual movie goer though?

[Josh-a-tron]

Originally Posted by Tetragrammaton

Heading into its third and last big weekend, I think it's safe to say Avengers Endgame won't be reaching $1B domestic or even beating the domestic record holder of Star Wars the Force Awakens at $936.6M.

Worldwide, while it has a good chance of catching Avatar at $2.78B, I now doubt it has enough legs to reach $3B.

Domestic: $660M
International: $1.66B

Total Worldwide: $2.32B

I don't think 900mil+ will happen but 3bil is still on the table. Remember, this movie will be in theaters for another 4 months at least. 300mil globally over 4 months isn't a stretch. And like I said I think it clears Avatar next weekend.

[Gothamite]

Originally Posted by Josh-a-tron

I don't think 900mil+ will happen but 3bil is still on the table. Remember, this movie will be in theaters for another 4 months at least. 300mil globally over 4 months isn't a stretch. And like I said I think it clears Avatar next weekend.

Sure, it'll be playing throughout the summer at drive-in theaters like Black Panther did, but it's already slipping behind TFA in terms of daily grosses here in the US. Many people are still in school/working, unlike when TFA was enjoying big January daily grosses. Also, the movie cratered in China after a big opening week that coincided with a week-long holiday. All major international markets already got the movie (unlike the usual scheduling, with Japan and/or Australia getting a movie several months late).

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme.../#728195de428a

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/showdo...svstarwars.htm



https://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies...marvel2019.htm

[Tetragrammaton]

Avengers Endgame brings in less than predicted over its third weekend. With estimated amounts of $63M domestic and $100M international the movie continues to close in on Avatar, but it's box office is dropping off fast and what seemed like a certainty is now only a possibility.

Domestic: $723M estimated
International: $1.76B estimated

Total Worldwide: $2.48B estimated

[Augen]

Id like to do hit 2.8, but did think last bit would be the hardest part.

[Tetragrammaton]

Endgame barely edged out Detective Pikachu for top spot this weekend. The real competition is here with John Wick 3, Aladdin, and Godzilla opening over the next three weeks.

Still think it will beat Avatar when the dust clears, but it's not going to do it easily.

[Josh-a-tron]

Originally Posted by Tetragrammaton

Endgame barely edged out Detective Pikachu for top spot this weekend. The real competition is here with John Wick 3, Aladdin, and Godzilla opening over the next three weeks.

Still think it will beat Avatar when the dust clears, but it's not going to do it easily.

I still aay it clears Avatar by next weekend. 2.5bil was the mark I said for this weekend and I expect tomorrows actuals to bring it closer to my original number. It'll bring in around 45mil more domestcally next week plus global takes, and by next weekend I fully expect it to surpass 2.7bil.