Winter is coming....and it is going to last for years to come. An in-depth analysis

[Forps is back]

Winter is coming. A winter that is going to last for years to come...

In reality, it is already here but this winter will last WAYYYYYYY longer than anyone believes.


1) Interest rates are not going down soon. The moment Fed implies reducing its rates, stock market and commodities are going to start a party, driving to a new "wealth-effect" and new inflation pressures etc. Something that Fed does not want.

If inflation starts going straight up again after Fed makes her first move, her credibility goes to zero.

So Fed is not going to risk it.

She is going to press and press and press down inflation with vengeance and keep rates steady but elevated for longer than majority of you guys think. Steady but elevated for wayyyyy longer than you or the market thinks.


2) We are in the midst of a long-term re-adjustment of the deflationary anchor China had been for the last 20-30 years for the world economy.

Producing stuff for dirty cheap prices and also producing in large quantities. This spurred high growth in the West with relatively low inflation lasting for 2-3 decades.

Now Western countries want some of that production back, which means HIGHER inflation due to higher input costs and higher payroll costs (eg wages are way higher in US or Europe along with many other input costs).

Even if countries like Vietnam (an uprising power) or India step in to somewhat replace China (Vietnam is already replacing China eg in furniture), they are already not as "cheap" as China was when she started ascending. Inflation and wages are already rising not only in China but also in Vietnam and India.

A 20-30y deflationary factor in the world economy has now turned to an inflationary factor.


3) Food prices are not returning to what they used to be. Droughts and extreme weather conditions are making agricultural production not predictable and highly volatile. The end of cheap food is also near.

Taking into account, that food is a necessity (whereas buying eg a statue is not), majority of families are going to readjust their spending habits to an environment where higher food prices are a harsh reality.


4) Bearing in mind the above, our hobby (statues of pop culture icons) is going to be hit hard. Basically it is already in a "coma".

These items are basically DECORATIVE items, nothing more, nothing less. They are also artsy but the depth of potential customers is rather shallow. The "pool" of potential buyers is not large enough.

Also there are no ultra deep-pocketed collectors in this hobby like there are in real, in TRUE art (eg paintings). These collectors basically "collect" 1 out 1 ES, if you get what Im saying, not 1 out of 1000.

Our hobby is going to be examined and studied in the future, WHOLE sections of museums in 500y are going to be assigned to eg "Statues of pop culture icons of the 20/21th centuries", "this is the first, the OG Hulk" etc, but for the time being, lets be real.

Statues of Marvel and DC are basically decorative items and when you don't have enough money to pay your rent, your electricity bill or your monthly budget for groceries went 200% up, well, you can postpone getting the new Batman.


5) Apart from point no4, there is also something that NEARLY NOONE brings in the conversation.

Our hobby is also an extremely time-limited and space-constraint hobby. One of the FEW hobbies that have such a strange limitation (eg in car collecting can also happen something similar, but in that hobby, collectors are multi-millionaires, not average Joes)

How many statues/LSBs can a collector buy and then store their humongous boxes? Forps has >300 statues and LSBs, ZenLogikos has 65, majority of old collectors are already space-constraint. And these old collectors, these maniacs are the collectors that regularly buy statues. Ofc some new collectors got into the hobby during Covid and stay-at-home time, but these collectors are already leaving.

Old collectors are basically full of statues and they lack room and space.

Other hobbies, eg comics or watches, are not so space-constraint. You can keep 300 comics in one bookcase or you can easily store 100 watches.

Is it possible to buy and store the boxes for 50 or 100 statues ?

Some of the old collectors try to buy new stuff but then they are either obliged to sell their older stuff (at a loss due to the fact that aftermarket is basically non-existent atm) or to rent a storage unit.

But with prices for storage units also skyrocketing, even they, the old and loyal collectors are not able to keep up, not only due to money constraints but also due to space constraints.


6) The combination of all the above (interest rates staying steady but elevated for longer than everybody expects, the huge U-turn in global economy and the end of a deflationary era which helped spur high growth in the West last 20-30 years, the end of cheap food prices, the fact that statues are basically decorative items and the market for them is rather shallow and the reality that our hobby has the disadvantage of space compared to other hobbies leading to even old and loyal collectors to give up) along with the fact that nowadays there are many companies producing statues is going to lead to a WINTER we've never seen before in our hobby.


It is going to last for numerous years and we are going to exit from it probably after 10y when a new breed of collectors being nowadays eg 18y old enter the market. Surely the market/hobby will bottom out in 1.5-2y but for extremely high sales, a new breed of collectors will be needed, collectors with funds but also with totally empty space.
I can easily see companies failing if they are not smart enough to adjust.

With majority of companies struggling, Sideshow, for an example (if she is also smart enough and takes emergency measures as Forps screams, lol. Forps wants to save Sideshow at ALL COSTS) can KO the competition with a new comic 1/3 line in lets say 1.5y. To "collect" all available money and interest from collectors still staying in the hobby.

But I'll write about companies and what I predict about them or what they should do, after I read some of your thoughts, my dear friends.

So, what is your opinion?

[Iko Iko]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

Winter is coming. A winter that is going to last for years to come...

In reality, it is already here but this winter will last WAYYYYYYY longer than anyone believes.


1) Interest rates are not going down soon. The moment Fed implies reducing its rates, stock market and commodities are going to start a party, driving to a new "wealth-effect" and new inflation pressures etc. Something that Fed does not want.

If inflation starts going straight up again after Fed makes her first move, her credibility goes to zero.

So Fed is not going to risk it.

She is going to press and press and press down inflation with vengeance and keep rates steady but elevated for longer than majority of you guys think. Steady but elevated for wayyyyy longer than you or the market thinks.


2) We are in the midst of a long-term re-adjustment of the deflationary anchor China had been for the last 20-30 years for the world economy.

Producing stuff for dirty cheap prices and also producing in large quantities. This spurred high growth in the West with relatively low inflation lasting for 2-3 decades.

Now Western countries want some of that production back, which means HIGHER inflation due to higher input costs and higher payroll costs (eg wages are way higher in US or Europe along with many other input costs).

Even if countries like Vietnam (an uprising power) or India step in to somewhat replace China (Vietnam is already replacing China eg in furniture), they are already not as "cheap" as China was when she started ascending. Inflation and wages are already rising not only in China but also in Vietnam and India.

A 20-30y deflationary factor in the world economy has now turned to an inflationary factor.


3) Food prices are not returning to what they used to be. Droughts and extreme weather conditions are making agricultural production not predictable and highly volatile. The end of cheap food is also near.

Taking into account, that food is a necessity (whereas buying eg that junk, LBS Superman 1/3 is not), majority of families are going to readjust their spending habits to an environment where higher food prices are a harsh reality.


4) Bearing in mind the above, our hobby (statues of pop culture icons) is going to be hit hard. Basically it is already in a "coma".

These items are basically DECORATIVE items, nothing more, nothing less. They are also artsy but the depth of potential customers is rather shallow. The "pool" of potential buyers is not large enough.

Also there are no ultra deep-pocketed collectors in this hobby like there are in real, in TRUE art (eg paintings). These collectors basically "collect" 1 out 1 ES, if you get what Im saying, not 1 out of 1000.

Our hobby is going to be examined and studied in the future, WHOLE section of museums in 500y are going to be assigned to eg "Statues of pop culture icons of the 20/21th centuries", "this is the first, the OG Hulk" etc, but for the time being, lets be real.

Statues of Marvel and DC are basically decorative items and when you don't have enough money to pay your rent, your electricity bill or your monthly budget for groceries went 200% up, well, you can postpone getting the new Batman.


5) Apart from point no4, there is also something that NEARLY NOONE brings in the conversation.

Our hobby is also an extremely time-limited and space-constraint hobby. One of the FEW hobbies that have such a strange limitation (eg car collecting is also something similar, but in that hobby, collectors are multi-millionaires, not average Joes)

How many statues/LSBs can a collector buy and store their humongous boxes? Forps has >300, ZenLogikos has 65, majority of old collectors are already space-constraint. And these old collectors, these maniacs are the collectors that regularly buy statues. Ofc some new collectors got into the hobby during Covid and stay-at-home time, but these collectors are already leaving.

Old collectors are basically full of statues and they lack room and space.

Other hobbies, eg comics or watches, are not so space-constraint. You can keep 300 comics in one bookcase or you can easily store 100 watches.

Is it possible to buy and store the boxes for 50 or 100 statues ?

Some of the old collectors try to buy new stuff but then they are either obliged to sell their older stuff (at a loss due to the fact that aftermarket is basically non-existent atm) or to rent a storage unit.

But with prices for storage units also skyrocketing, even they, the old and loyal collectors are not able to keep up, not only due to money constraints but also due to space constraints.


6) The combination of all the above (interest rates staying elevated for longer than anyone expects, the huge U-turn in global economy and the end of a deflationary era which helped spur high growth in the West last 20-30 years, the end of cheap food prices, the fact that statues are basically decorative items and the market for them is rather shallow and the reality that our hobby has the disadvantage of space compared to other hobbies leading to even old and loyal collectors to give up) along with the fact that nowadays there are many companies producing statues is going to lead to a WINTER we've never seen before in our hobby.


It is going to last for numerous years and we are going to exit from it probably after 10y when a new breed of collectors being nowadays eg 18y old enter the market.
I can easily see many companies failing if they are not smart enough to adjust.

With majority of companies struggling, Sideshow, for an example (if she also is smart enough and takes emergency measures as Forps screams, lol) can KO the competition with a new comic 1/3 line in lets say 1.5y. To "collect" all available money and interest from collectors still staying in the hobby.

But I'll write about companies and what I predict about them or what they should do, after I read some of your thoughts, my dear friends.

So, what is your opinion?

Some great thoughts. I'd add the shipping costs of these items as another factor in any potential downturn. When a comic or watch costs $15-$20 to ship and a statue costs $500, that is something new collectors (and even existing collectors) won't tolerate.

[generalszabo]

Can someone sum up the post for me?

Is it that things are getting pricey?

[Freakyguy666]

Originally Posted by Forps is back

Winter is coming. A winter that is going to last for years to come...

In reality, it is already here but this winter will last WAYYYYYYY longer than anyone believes.


1) The moment Fed implies reducing its rates, stock market and commodities are going to start a party, driving to a new "wealth-effect" and new inflation pressures etc. Something that Fed does not want.

If inflation starts going straight up again after Fed makes her first move, her credibility goes to zero.

So Fed is not going to risk it.

She is going to press and press and press down inflation with vengeance and keep rates steady but elevated for longer than majority of you guys think. Steady but elevated for wayyyyy longer than you or the market thinks.


So, what is your opinion?

Umm, are you living under a rock? The s&p 500 (aka the stock market) went from ~3500 to ~4600 in the last 6-9months…that’’s a ~32% GAIN!

Historically the average gain in 12 months is less than 10%...we did more than TRIPLE that in about HALF the time!

You clearly are out of touch and people should not bother reading your post because you are so far off on #1, why bother reading the rest?

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by Iko Iko

Some great thoughts. I'd add the shipping costs of these items as another factor in any potential downturn. When a comic or watch costs $15-$20 to ship and a statue costs $500, that is something new collectors (and even existing collectors) won't tolerate.

Shipping costs are a factor but the aforementioned 5 (not 4, lol) Horsemen of the Apocalypse are the main culprits of the downfall of our hobby.

Old collectors (the maniacs who constantly buying) are now space-constraint. They either have to sell older stuff (at a huge loss) or to rent a storage unit at astronomical prices.

Comics or watches are easily packed or storaged. It is something that NEARLY NOONE talks about.

But if you think that Tubers can give such an in-depth analysis like Forps' did with the 5 main reasons of the extreme winter in our hobby, then you are going to wait forever. Tubers are clueless, they are there only to push and push and push and hype. I could place them as factor no6, but i don't want their armies coming after me and the smoke. For now, lol.

[ZenLogikos]

First, I was thinking:



Then, I got another shoutout!



Agreeing on some points:



Too depressing, so in the end:

[Forps is back]

Originally Posted by Freakyguy666

Umm, are you living under a rock? The s&p 500 (aka the stock market) went from ~3500 to ~4600 in the last 6-9months?that??s a ~32% GAIN!

Historically the average gain in 12 months is less than 10%...we did more than TRIPLE that in about HALF the time!

You clearly are out of touch and people should not bother reading your post because you are so far off on #1, why bother reading the rest?

Do you believe that i don't follow the market? Or do you believe that only YOU invest?

Well, the market anticipates Fed to stop raising rates (and Fed is going to ultimately stop, maybe 1 more small increase and then it is going to halt) but then they are pricing in that Fed is going to reduce her rates sooner than Fed is going to do. The moment Fed announces or even implies a rate cut, commodities are going to explode again as well as stocks, rents etc. Something that is going to drive inflation STRAIGHT up again and Fed will lose any credibilty.

Fed's aim is to crush inflation and inflation expectations. The market has gone too far and it would be wise to cover your bets at this point.

So, go play in other threads, pal. You are obviously clueless about what the market thinks that Fed is going to do and what Fed will actually do. If i were you, i would "cover" my bet at this point. The market is obviously pricing in things that are not going to happen so soon. The rally was good, but time to get some cash out.

And i already see that they throwed you out of other threads too being rather obnoxious. So, i kindly ask you to get out of my thread also. I don't want to talk/argue with you. Please leave. Im kindly asking you.

Bye, bye!

[SONICobra]

[BlackestNight]

I read this one, very good read, well thought out.

In summary, all collectibles across the board will continue low sale numbers well into the future. Dictated by the world economy.

[Straken-SWE]

As always a great read Forps

And..

Originally Posted by ZenLogikos

Too depressing, so in the end:

Ffs